Aesop at Raconteur Report summarizes the “middle case” for ” ordinary corona virus, with a 3% death rate (on average), and it spreads apace, like they do. An excerpt:

We’ll know sooner than a month. Those 5 initial U.S. cases started cropping up here about 14 days ago, so we’ll start seeing second-tier infections soon, if there are any. And if both our governmental overlords,and the ABCNNBCBS media, decides we should know about it. If we get 10-20 new cases shortly, we’re probably screwed.

At that rate, absent any other mitigating factors, it’s nationwide by around Christmas this year, and perhaps far sooner. And even with simple corona virus, that’s potentially up to 9M dead by then.
(3% of 300M or so). Pretty grim, all in all. If you get the short straw. Not so much if you’re in the other 97%. Sorry, but there it is.