The country is entering a recession but the ‘Jobs Report’ that was released shows a big jump in jobs for July?
Something Snaps In The Job Market: Multiple Jobholders Hit All Time High As Unexplained 1.8 Million Jobs Gap Emerges
So what’s going on here? The simple answer: Fewer people working, but more people working more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey.
And since the Establishment survey is far slower to pick up on the nuances in employment composition, while the Household Survey has gone nowhere since March, the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (perhaps with the occasional nudge from the White House especially now that the economy is in a technical recession) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same erroneous seasonal adjustment factor that gave such a wrong perspective of the labor market in the aftermath of the covid pandemic (until it was all adjusted away a year ago). In other words, while the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.
We expect that “realization” to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation.
In short, the Administration is double counting job holders, more people are getting a second job to make ends meet in Biden’s economy and that bogus jobs report is counting those poor souls twice as workers newly entering the job market.
Older graphic, lumber is lower now and gas is higher.