Modelers Were ‘Astronomically Wrong’ in COVID-19 Predictions, Says Leading Epidemiologist—and the World Is Paying the Price | Jon Miltimore
Ioannidis said emerging data support his prediction that lockdowns would have wide-ranging social consequences and that the mathematical models on which the lockdowns were based were horribly flawed.
Ioannidis also said a comprehensive review of the medical literature suggests that COVID-19 is far more widespread than most people realize.
“There are already more than 50 studies that have presented results on how many people in different countries and locations have developed antibodies to the virus,” Ioannidis, a Greek-American physician, told Greek Reporter. “Of course none of these studies are perfect, but cumulatively they provide useful composite evidence. A very crude estimate might suggest that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases.”
Ioannidis said medical data suggest the fatality risk is far lower than earlier estimates had led policymakers to believe and “is almost 0%” for individuals under 45 years old. The median fatality rate is roughly 0.25 percent, however, because the risk “escalates substantially” for individuals over 85 and can be as high as 25 percent for debilitated people in nursing homes.
The British scientist that predicted 3-5 million dead in US had a history of overblown and inflated ‘warnings’ on everything from swine flu to “Mad Cow Disease”. But governments in the UK and the USA believed him. Manny of the decisions made were based on his work.
“Major consequences on the economy, society and mental health” have already occurred. I hope they are reversible, and this depends to a large extent on whether we can avoid prolonging the draconian lockdowns and manage to deal with COVID-19 in a smart, precision-risk targeted approach, rather than blindly shutting down everything. Similarly, we have already started to see the consequences of “financial crisis, unrest, and civil strife.” I hope it is not followed by “war and meltdown of the social fabric.” Globally, the lockdown measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives, with the potential resurgence of tuberculosis, childhood diseases like measles where vaccination programs are disrupted, and malaria. I hope that policymakers look at the big picture of all the potential problems and not only on the very important, but relatively thin slice of evidence that is COVID-19.”
I think the biggest mistake made was centralizing decision making and overruling local, regional responses. Where local governments had more control, as in Red States with Republican Governors, lockdowns were more limited or non-existent. The results seem to validate those decisions. (Blue States Have Been Hit Much Harder)
COVID-19 effects were enhanced by several common Blue State factors; high population density, dependence on Mass Transit, and (deadliest of all) Democrat political control. In New York State, Cuomo’s epic and disastrous decision to force nursing homes to accept still infectious COVID patients inside would (in a just world) be a historic example of the price paid when political dominance is allowed to over-ride the better judgement of professionals without any political power.