General McCraffrey’s presentation is an eye opener … View the entire report if you can.
A basic axiom of military operations starts with an assessment of enemy CAPABILITIES-- not enemy INTENTIONS.
There is now widespread intelligence agreement that the Iranians would be foolhardy (INTENTIONS) to blockade the Gulf inviting GCC and US retaliation-- and also
shutting off their own oil exports which provides 80% of their foreign revenue.
There is also a widespread incorrect intelligence assessment that the Iranians lack the CAPABILITIES to shut down the Gulf exports. NOT SO.
The latest saber rattling by the Iranian Armed Forces threatening the US Navy Carrier Stennis Battle Group to not return to the Gulf was significant. It was immediately and widely derided as an empty threat by 5th Fleet in Bahrain. In my judgment the US will not and should not place a carrier at risk in the narrow Gulf waters if combat operations are deemed likely. There is a high probability that the Iranians could SINK a US carrier (with 5000+ sailors) in these constrained waters with their current military capabilities. It would mean all-out war if that happened.
View the entire report if you can.