‘This time I’m scared’: experts fear too late for China virus lockdown

China’s bid to contain a deadly new virus by placing cities of millions under quarantine is an unprecedented undertaking but it is unlikely to stop the disease spreading, experts warn.

The contagious virus has already reached elsewhere in China and abroad, and even an authoritarian government has only a small timeframe in which trapped residents will submit to such a lockdown, they say.

“I think we have passed the golden period of control and prevention,” said Guan Yi, an expert on viruses at Hong Kong University.

Plus: A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modeled what would happen if a deadly coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65 million people could die within 18 months.

Plus:Viral Pandemic Starts in Chinese City (Wuhan) with Research Lab for ‘World’s Most Dangerous‘ Pathogens.

The Chinese New Year is this weekend, how many of the celebrants have traveled to destinations outside of China, before the lock-downs and airport screenings started?

My rough estimate of the numbers of cases and the resulting fatalities indicate a 10-15% death rate.  Presumably less in countries with better health care systems, i.e. The USA.

Might want to think twice about accepting an invitation to any Chinese New Year parties this weekend.  Hopefully this is another “Swine Flu” scare, but only time will tell.